Apparently indie film's oldest problem has just flipped. For years, the complaint was too many movies chasing too few buyers. Now, after a record $4.7B summer box office, dealmakers say distributors are hungry and there aren't enough distinctive, broadly commercial films to sell them. Why buyers are hungry:
- Two big recent festival deals, 'Obsession' ($15M at TIFF) and 'The Invite' ($12M at Sundance), both came out of bidding wars.
- Moviegoers are showing up for more than just tentpoles. 'Obsession' has made $500M+ worldwide, 'Backrooms' $400M+, and 'The Invite' $60M.
- Most recently, 'Primetime' opened above $19M domestically late last month on a $15M budget.
What's squeezing the supply? Two things, according to dealmakers. Everyday line items like craft services and transportation have made U.S. shoots prohibitively expensive, so fewer films get made. The second is what happens after theaters. Indies used to count on a reliable second payday from licensing their films to pay-TV channels. Now that studios own their own streamers and stock them with their own movies, those deals have dried up, which leaves buyers less willing to gamble on anything short of an obvious hit.
Some filmmakers aren't buying this story. They argue plenty of movies exist and distributors just lack the nerve to back them. The programmer who premiered 'Obsession' (made for just $750K, exactly what a cautious buyer passes on) says the bigger issue is distributors underinvesting in getting films in front of audiences.
Looking ahead… One of the two problems has a possible fix in Congress right now. A bipartisan tax credit bill, introduced last month, would cover 20% of a film's labor costs (30% for indies) and stack with state incentives. The other problem, how indies earn money after theaters, has no fix in sight.
