Remember that August spec script surge we reported on? The numbers had been trending up all summer: 23 specs sold across the summer months, with 9 in August alone (the highest monthly volume since March 2017). Many wondered if it was just a lucky streak. But recently, multiple insiders have weighed in with what they're seeing behind the scenes: this is actually part of a shift they've been tracking for the past two years. Here’s why they say we’re seeing a surge:
- Superhero fatigue: Entertainment 360's Geoff Shaevitz (on The Town podcast this week) connects it directly to Marvel's decline. When Marvel stopped being the guaranteed golden ticket, studios had to pivot.
- Studio frustration with packages:Â Buyers are tired of take-it-or-leave-it packages where they're stuck with whatever director and star the agency bundled together. They want clean specs they can package themselves. Plus, there's the speed factor: a finished script beats five years in development hell.
- Audience demand for originality: Warner Bros. proved the audience appetite exists, notching seven consecutive $40M+ openings this year with originals like ‘Sinners’ and ‘Weapons.’
What this looks like on the ground:Â Reps who wouldn't touch original scripts two years ago are now actively selling them, with several deals turning into bidding wars. We're seeing seven-figure deals without any talent attached (unthinkable in 2023). According to insiders, both studios and streamers are jumping in when the right project hits the market.
What's actually selling:Â According to dealmakers, high-concept thrillers and action scripts are the hot sellers, with rom-coms getting love from Netflix. Horror's cooled off a bit as indie buyers prefer thrillers now. Also, family films are benefiting from superhero fatigue.
The contrarian take: Veteran talent lawyer Linda Lichter argues "the business is healthier when people are developing." Translation: This spec boom might actually be a symptom of something broken. Studios may have slashed their development departments so severely that they now lack the infrastructure to nurture ideas from scratch. Instead of developing projects, they're buying finished scripts because they have to.
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