U.S. FILM & TV PRODUCTION?
Are we calling this a comeback??
Not quite. We can say the patient has a pulse, and it is getting a little stronger.
After several difficult years for U.S. production, Q1 2026 is showing some early signs of stabilization. As is the box office (12% higher than this same time last year – and we have a big summer of movies ahead of us).
The bigger question, of course, is whether this is the beginning of a real recovery or just a temporary pause in a much longer reset.
A few things stand out:
* California’s expanded incentive appears to be making a real difference. With the annual cap increased from $330 million to $750 million, the state has already approved 147 productions, a 53% year-over-year increase over the comparable 10-month period.
* Los Angeles is also showing some improvement. FilmLA reported 5,121 shoot days in Q1 2026, up 10.7% from Q4 2025.
That is encouraging, even if the market is still down 3.3% year-over-year!
* The rebound seems strongest in features, independent films, animation, and higher-profile scripted projects. Animation is especially interesting, with projects like the next Simpsons Movie and a DreamWorks Animation project reportedly being produced entirely in California. That is a meaningful shift after years of animation work, moving outside the U.S.
At the same time, this is not a full recovery story. Reality TV remains soft, and overall production volume is still under pressure. The global production pie is not suddenly expanding overnight.
But there are signs that the U.S. may be gaining ground again, particularly for larger-budget projects. New York, California, and Georgia are once again viewed as leading production hubs, a notable shift after no U.S. state ranked in the top five in last year’s ProdPro survey. And, New Jersey made a notable leap, with a 45 percent increase in filming volume and a 37 percent increase in production spending in the first quarter of 2026. While some states have struggled, New Jersey is emerging as a rising production hub. This growth stands out against the backdrop of other U.S. states losing ground.
So, optimistic? Yes.
Comfortable? Not yet.
The next test is whether this stabilization shows up beyond the headlines, in payroll volume, crew employment, vendor activity, stage utilization, production planning, and the broader business infrastructure that supports this industry.
For now, I’ll take “better than it was” as a win.
This is not a recovery lap yet. But after the last few years, even signs of stabilization matter.
